Golden Globe Predix

Tonight, just down the street from my apartment, the 63rd annual GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS will commence at the Beverly Hilton, marking the 63rd time the Hollywood community has gathered to get drunk and communally masturbate on live national television.

The "best party of the year" as the promos promise are more influential and famous simply for being both on TV and occurring before the Oscars than for having any real or earned legitimacy. They also always feature a cheesetastic Red Carpet montage of star arrivals set to the tune of a current pop song with the lyrics not so cleverly adjusted to feature puns about the year's movies -- always sung by "we work for food" hip hop group the BLACK EYED PEAS.

Predicting the Globes is always something of a tricky affair, because while most award shows are a popularity contest of some kind, the Globes are even more complicated in that their hosts -- the mysterious, who are they really HOLLYWOOD FOREIGN PRESS ASSOCIATION (jigga what?!) -- often pick their winners and nominees in order to appear hip. That usually means dishing out awards to the best looking stars.

With that in mind, my predictions.

MOVIES

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
THE NOMINEES: Scarlett Johansson "Match Point"; Shirley MacLaine "In Her Shoes"; Frances McDormand "North Country"; Rachel Weisz "The Constant Gardner"; Michelle Williams "Brokeback Mountain."
LIKELY WINNER: Shirley MacLaine - The Globes like to award the grand dames. (Think Meryl Streep a few years ago for "Adaptation." And just think of the loopy, reincarnation-filled speech to come! (Another criterion for Globe winners -- must give good acceptance speeches. Why else do you think they give one to Jack Nicholson every year?) Williams is the critics darling this year, and "Brokeback" has swept the Globes nominations, so her uber-acclaimed perf may help the "Dawson's Creek" sneak through. Globes also like to award the Hollywood princess, however (think Gwyneth, Kate Hudson) so Johansson has a shot. And then there's Weisz who is a lead in a supporting category.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Michelle Williams

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
THE NOMINEES: George Clooney "Syriana"; Matt Dillon "Crash"; Will Ferrell "The Producers"; Paul Giamatti "Cinderella Man"; Bob Hoskins "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
LIKELY WINNER: George Clooney - The Globes love to award megastars, and even tipped their hat to an undeserving Clooney five years ago for "O Brother, Where Art Thou?". Besides, this is a huge year for Clooney and they'll want to toss him at least one bone.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Matt Dillon

Best Screenplay
THE NOMINEES: "Match Point"; "Good Night, and Good Luck"; "Crash"; "Munich"; "Brokeback Mountain"
LIKELY WINNER: "Crash" - They gotta give Crash something, and this seems like the category. A real "writer's movie."
WHO SHOULD WIN: "Crash"

Best Director
THE NOMINEES: Woody Allen "Match Point"; George Clooney "Good Night, and Good Luck"; Peter Jackson "King Kong"; Ang Lee "Brokeback Mountain"; Fernando Meirelles "The Constant Gardener"; Steven Spielberg "Munich"
LIKELY WINNER: The Globes love Ang (they awarded him for "Crouching Tiger" in 2000) and they are clearly apeshit over "Brokeback." Unless they go gaga for Clooney, this should mark another victory for the gay cowboys.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Clooney or Spielberg

Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy
THE NOMINEES: Pierce Brosnan "The Matador"; Jeff Daniels "The Squid & the Whale"; Johnny Depp "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory"; Nathan Lane "The Producers"; Cillian Murphy "Breakfast on Pluto"; Joaquin Phoenix "Walk the Line"
LIKELY WINNER: Joaquin Phoenix - He's the only candidate with a real shot at an Oscar nod, and the Globes like to look like they play a role. Brosnan may be too flashy a movie star to resist. And the promise of an over-the-top acceptance speech from Lane (to match his playing-to-the-back-row performance) may be too much for the voters to resist.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Jeff Daniels

Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy
THE NOMINEES: Judi Dench "Mrs. Henderson Presents"; Keira Knightly "Pride & Prejudice"; Laura Linney "The Squid & the Whale"; Sarah Jessica Parker "The Family Stone"; Reese Witherspoon "Walk the Line"
LIKELY WINNER: Reese. She's going all the way this year. The Globes do like a surprise though, and musical/comedy is a good category to do it in. (Remember when Jamie Lee Curtis won for "True Lies"?) The Globes are obsessed with SJP -- five-time winner for "Sex and the City." And a hot young piece like Keira might just be enough to swipe that statuette right out from under Reese's pretty little Southern nose.
WHO SHOULD WIN: I haven't seen Reese, but I'm sure I love her. If not her, Laura Linney.

Best Actor in a Drama
THE NOMINEES: Russell Crowe "Cinderella Man"; Philip Seymour Hoffman "Capote"; Terrence Howard "Hustle & Flow"; Heath Ledger "Brokeback Mountain"; David Strathairn "Good Night, and Good Luck"
LIKELY WINNER: Terrence Howard - I'm going out on a bit of a limb here. This would seem to be a two-horse race between Hoffman and Ledger, who have split the critics awards this season. And while I think between the two of them, Ledger probably has the edge thanks to the revelatory nature of his performance. (Who knew the guy from "10 Things I Hate About You" was that good?!), I'm predicting a vote split in favor of Howard, this year's Cinderella story. And think of the potential acceptance speech? Sure to be of Ving Rhames/Jamie Foxx/Cuba Gooding proportions.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Anyone but Russell Crowe would make me happy.

Best Actress in a Drama
THE NOMINEES: Maria Bello "A History of Violence"; Felicity Huffman "Transamerica"; Gwyneth Paltrow "Proof"; Charlize Theron "North Country"; Ziyi Zhang "Memoirs of a Geisha"
LIKELY WINNER: Felicity Huffman - Globes love a stunt, and would love to take credit for pushing this TV starlet to movie star status.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Well, I've only seen "History of Violence," so I'll go with Maria Bello if only for her cheerleading outfit.


Best Picture Musical/Comedy
THE NOMINEES: "Mrs. Henderson Presents"; "Pride & Prejudice"; "The Producers"; "The Squid & the Whale"; "Walk the Line"
LIKELY WINNER: "Walk the Line" - Typically, the Globes wouldn't be able to resist an honest-to-goodness musical, but "The Producers" was such a dud, I don't think they can award it in good conscience. Other than "Walk the Line" -- a borderline Best Picture Oscar nominee, none of the other movies are real contenders, though the Globes might go for shock value and award period-piece "P&P."
WHO SHOULD WIN: "The Squid & the Whale"

Best Picture Drama
THE NOMINEES: "Brokeback Mountain"; "The Constant Gardener"; "Good Night, and Good Luck"; "A History of Violence"; "Match Point"
LIKELY WINNER: "Brokeback Mountain" - The Globes...they love the gays!
WHO SHOULD WIN: "Match Point"

TV

Best Supporting Actress in TV
THE NOMINEES: Candice Bergen "Boston Legal"; Camryn Manheim "Elvis"; Sandra Oh "Grey's Anatomy"; Elizabeth Perkins "Weeds"; Joanne Woodward "Empire Falls"
LIKELY WINNER: Sandra Oh - A Tough category. Candice was a constant winner in her "Murphy Brown" days and Perkins gives a career-making performance as an acid-tongued desperate housewife. But "Grey's Anatomy" is THE show, and since Emmy missed its shot to award it this fall, I feel like the Globes will like to stake their territory.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Elizabeth Perkins

Best Supporting Actor in TV
THE NOMINEES: Naveen Andrews "Lost"; Paul Newman "Empire Falls"; Jeremy Piven "Entourage"; Randy Quaid "Elvis"; Donald Sutherland "Commander in Chief"
LIKELY WINNER: Jeremy Piven
WHO SHOULD WIN: Jeremy Piven

Best Actor in a Comedy Series
THE NOMINEES: Zach Braff "Scrubs"; Steve Carrell "The Office"; Larry David "Curb Your Enthusiasm"; Jason Lee "My Name Is Earl"; Charlie Sheen "Two and a Half Men"
LIKELY WINNER: A tough race between Jason Lee & Steve Carrell. I'm going to go with Carrell though, thanks to his one-two punch of strong film and TV work thanks to "40-Year-Old Virgin."
WHO SHOULD WIN: Steve Carrell

Best Actress in a Comedy Series
THE NOMINEES: Marcia Cross "Desperate Housewives"; Teri Hatcher "Desperate Housewives"; Felicity Huffman "Desperate Housewives"; Eva Longoria "Desperate Housewives"; Mary-Louise Parker "Weeds"
LIKELY WINNER: Felicity Huffman - What a story that would make. Two Globes in one year! Marcia Cross actually deserves it, so who knows. And as the lone non-Desperate Housewives-star -- though she plays one on TV -- Mary-Louise -- another Globe fave -- could sneak in.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Marcia Cross or Mary-Louise Parker

Best Actor in a Drama Series
THE NOMINEES: Patrick Dempsey "Grey's Anatomy"; Matthew Fox "Lost"; Hugh Laurie "House"; Wentworth Miller "Prison Break"; Kiefer Sutherland "24"
LIKELY WINNER: Hugh Laurie or Patrick Dempsey - Do they go for class or the heartthrob career-comeback? Tough call.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Hugh Laurie


Best Actress in a Drama Series
THE NOMINEES: Patricia Arquette "Medium"; Glenn Close "The Shield"; Geena Davis "Commander in Chief"; Kyra Sedgwick "The Closer"; Polly Walker "Rome"
LIKELY WINNER: Geena Davis - Yeah she's a big oaf. But she's the star of the biggest new show on TV and an Oscar caliber movie actress. Liberal voters hoping for Hilary in '08 want to kick off the campaign now.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Kyra Sedgwick or Kristen Bell who shockingly isn't even nominated for "Veronica Mars."

Best Comedy Series
THE NOMINEES: "Curb Your Enthusiasm"; "Desperate Housewives"; "Entourage"; "Everybody Hates Chris"; "My Name Is Earl"; "Weeds"
LIKELY WINNER: "Everybody Hates Chris" - Housewives and Curb are so over. Weeds is too under-the-radar. My Name Is Earl is an exciting comedy, but not the sexiest choice. Entourage IS the sexiest choice, but I think Globe voters will go with the biggest story and give it to "Chris," a huge coup for the show and the little netlet that could UPN.
WHO SHOULD WIN: "Weeds"

Best Drama Series
THE NOMINEES: "Commander in Chief"; "Grey's Anatomy"; "Lost"; "Prison Break"; "Rome"
LIKELY WINNER: "Grey's Anatomy" - A tough competition with so many buzz worthy shows. The Globes like to give it to newbies which bodes well for both Grey's and Prison Break. "Lost" is such a cultural phenom though, and the Globes may not want to forget it. Still, this is the first time Grey's has been up for any significant awards, and the Globes will enjoy laying their claim to this show's success.
WHO SHOULD WIN: "Lost"